Optimistically, tourism recovery will still take several years before it recovers back to pre-Covid19 levels. Assuming our vaccination plan does kick in as planned, we are looking at the possibility of domestic tourism increasing only by next year (2022) if we are lucky.

International tourism, on the other hand, will depend on reciprocal green travel bubbles which are extremely complicated to negotiate and which involve multiple ministries and agencies. There is also the element of how countries perceive Malaysia’s efforts in handling the pandemic. Even then, the cost of international tourism and the restrictions to be imposed may not make expecting a high volume in the first few years of recovery sustainable.

See articles:

1. https://asia.nikkei.com/Opinion/Old-fashioned-tourism-will-never-return?fbclid=IwAR1uE9oi_r8iCh3x78mCyY3QjaiuWsKqKXnNFFyRt9O1HONwLmPRlRvjscw
2. https://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/2021/06/09/national/socialAffairs/Travel-bubble-Covid19-Vaccination/20210609184800297.html

There is a whole chicken-and-egg scenario when it comes to green bubbles. Even if the Ministry of Home Affairs (MOHA) and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MOFA) can agree to get the bubbles in play (and that other countries are willing), our industry must also be open and not in lockdown.

The Government of Malaysia will have to factor in those considerations when considering which of the reciprocal green bubbles should be prioritised for negotiations and where to spend future marketing dollars. But this is a problem for a couple of years down the road as I personally don’t expect to see this happening until at least 2023/2024.

So, we must ask:

1. Is MOHA and MOFA even prioritising this?
2. Even if they are, is the Ministry of Health (MOH) and Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation (MOSTI) prioritising our tourist locations for vaccination to achieve the 80% herd immunity locally in those areas?

Ultimately, it points to MOTAC to lobby for this as these ministries would have other priorities based on their scopes and mandates.

What this means for MOTAC is that it must consider implementing these steps:

1. Help MOH/MOSTI to fast-track the implementation of 80% herd immunity in strategic tourism locations even if it’s at MOTAC’s expense (use the tourism recovery fund allocated by the Ministry of Finance (MOF) if need be). This is in line with what they are talking about in opening PPVs through MICE centres.

2. Provide some form of compensation to the players of the industry that helps fast-track the implementation of 80% herd immunity in strategic tourism locations. This is to help subsidise their operating expenditure while fast-tracking the implementation. So don’t stop at PPVs; have tourist players’ staff go out of PPVs to get people to register and come to PPVs. This subsidy does not have to be the full amount of the monthly expenditure for staff, but partial. It will at least help stretch their cash reserves and hopefully minimise job losses. Don’t expect them to do it for free.

3. Provide assistance to our tourist industry players in the form of incentives and soft loans with the specific aim to vary or create new and alternative revenue streams to weather the wait for the recovery. E.g. loans to homestays to expand into farming, etc. Give priority to selected strategic locations.

4. Hold best practice sharing sessions on how tourism players can stretch their cash reserves and vary into alternative revenue models.

5. Launch tourism upgrade projects in strategic locations, which should involve the tourism players. Let us clean our beaches, fix the outdated infrastructure, and create more content-driven tourist locations etc. Note: content-driven here is to integrate our culture and heritage as part of the attraction. If they are privately owned, let it be loans/matching grants; if its publicly owned, the Government is to pay for it with components like letting the workers/volunteers be tourism players’ staff who are paid or let them handle the catering of for the volunteers etc.

6. Develop post-Covid recovery scenarios and SOPs for each type of tourism industry player to adhere to. Let us not wait to create them only when there is an announcement from the other Ministries.

7. Develop a communication plan for both industry players and approaching foreign entities and other countries. Help MOFA and MOHA priortise which countries to approach regarding the green bubble and what to ask for.

Notice I keep mentioning to prioritise strategic key tourism locations. This needs to be done. It is naïve to think that the whole industry will survive, and it is hubris to think the government can save every player in this scenario. A lot of people are going to lose their jobs and a high number of companies in this sector will shut down. We should protect the areas which have the highest chances of recovery; balancing access, reputation, and presence of industry players. E.g., Langkawi, Kuala Lumpur, Johor Bahru, Desaru, Penang etc.

Ultimately, without this, the industry will not survive to see tourism recover, nor will other countries be confident enough to agree to those reciprocal green bubbles (assuming it comes in time to tap the demand of travellers from countries that have recovered vs us being the last to open and missing the wave).

This is not about having a date for the opening of the tourism industry. Rather, it is about having a set of conditions for selected prioritised strategic locations so that there can be light at the end of the tunnel.